Current climate report: On the brink of an irreversible climate catastrophe
Despite better knowledge, according to the analysis of an international team of scientists, the most important factors influencing our climate on Earth have developed negatively. Fossil fuel emissions have risen to an all-time high. In July 2024, the three hottest days of all time were measured. One extreme weather event follows the next. With current policies, we are on track to increase global warming by around 2.7 degrees Celsius (°C) by 2100 (UNEP 2023). With catastrophic consequences for us humans.
There are only a few weeks left until the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference in Baku (COP 29), where the global community will once again meet to discuss measures to curb global warming. For years, scientists around the world have been calling for decisive action from politicians and businesses, including the authors of this report, who include the Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Johan Rockström, and oceanographer Stefan Rahmstorf.
"We are on the brink of an irreversible climate catastrophe. This is undoubtedly a global emergency. A large part of the foundations of life on Earth are at risk. We are entering a critical and unpredictable new phase of the climate crisis."
The annual climate report published by the scientific team led by William Ripple from Oregon State University (USA) in the journal "BioScience" begins with these urgent and extremely worrying words. For their climate report, they identified so-called planetary vital signs, which provide information about the state of the Earth's climate, by analyzing countless studies. Of the 35 vital signs analyzed each year, 25 have reached a worrying record high. The global failure to support a rapid and socially just phase-out of fossil fuels has led to a rapid escalation of climate-related impacts, the scientific team explains in their report.
Latest trends in the 35 "planetary vital signs"
Sea surface temperatures higher than ever
- In 20223, record-breaking sea surface temperatures were measured and also
- Ocean acidification in 2023 was higher than ever before
- The scientific team expects massive coral bleaching worldwide in 2024 due to high water temperatures
Temperature records reach record levels
- 2023 was the warmest summer in the northern hemisphere for 2000 years
- Global daily mean temperatures were at record levels for almost half of 2023 and most of 2024
- On our current emissions path, we could regularly exceed current temperature records in the coming years
Weather extremes on the rise
- Climate-related weather extremes and disasters lead to great human suffering. Extreme heat is expected to disproportionately affect people in poorer countries with lower emissions
- We will also experience many more extreme weather events - such as storms, heavy rain, drought and fires - in the coming years.
Greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise
- Man-made carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouse gases are the main drivers of climate change.
- From 2022, for example
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- 90 % of these emissions are attributable to the global combustion of fossil fuels and industrial processes,
- 10% on land use change, especially deforestation deforestation.
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- Annual energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased by 2.1% in 2023, which corresponds to a climate impact of over 40 billion tons of CO2. The three largest emitters, China, the USA and India, are together responsible for more than half of global emissions.
Energy generation and demand
- Fossil fuel consumption increased by 1.5% in 2023 compared to 2022
- The use of renewable energies increased in 2023, with the combined consumption of solar and wind energy rising by 15 % compared to 2022.
- This primarily compensated for the increase in energy requirements instead of replacing fossil fuels.
- The main reason for this is that renewable energies are often cheaper than comparable new alternatives from fossil fuels.
- The consumption of fossil fuels is still around 14 times higher than that of solar and wind energy.
Loss of forest areas continues
- Global tree cover loss increased from 22.8 million hectares per year in 2022 to 28.3 Mha per year in 2023, the third highest level on record. this was partly due to forest fires, which increased tree cover loss to a record high of 11.9 Mha.
- The team explains that a high loss of tree cover can lead to a series of feedback loops in which the loss of carbon sequestration by forests leads to additional warming, which in turn can lead to further losses in carbon sequestration.
Many scientists see black
An opinion poll conducted in 2024 has elicited the predictions of 380 respondents, including prominent IPCC climate scientists, senior authors and editors of scientific journals.
This resulted in a gloomy picture of the future.
- Around 80 % of respondents assume that global temperatures will be at least 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
- Almost half of them expect an increase of at least 3°C.
- Only 6% believe that the internationally agreed limit of 1.5 °C will be reached.
The scenario they paint includes widespread famine, conflict, mass migration and increasing weather extremes that will surpass anything seen before and have catastrophic consequences for humanity and the biosphere.
"We are already in the midst of an abrupt climate change that threatens life on Earth on a scale never before experienced by mankind," warns Ripple in a statement from his university.
"3 degrees of global warming would be the end of human civilization"
Solutions that we urgently need
"In a world with finite resources, unlimited growth is a dangerous illusion."
A statement that we can all subscribe to. Ripple's scientific team also proposes solutions in its report. First and foremost
- a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, achieved through a sufficiently high global carbon price that could curb emissions by the wealthy while providing funds for much-needed climate change mitigation and adaptation programs
- Pricing and reducing methane emissions to slow the short-term rise in global warming and help avoid tipping points and extreme climate impacts
- a drastic reduction in excessive consumption and waste, especially among the wealthy
- a reduction in the birth rate by strengthening education and the rights of girls and women
- a reform of food production systems to promote a more plant-based diet
- more direct efforts to protect, restore or rewild ecosystems
- the introduction of an ecological and post-growth-oriented economic framework that ensures social justice
The international research team concludes:
"The future of humanity depends on our creativity, morality and perseverance. We urgently need to reduce ecological overshoot and take immediate, large-scale action to mitigate and adapt to climate change in order to limit short-term damage. "
Further articles on this topic:
1.5 versus 2 degrees global warming - the difference is that dramatic
